"There is a widespread, rosy misconception that viruses evolve over time to become more benign," Katzourakis said. Many epidemiologists say that simply letting Covid spread unchecked gives it a greater chance of mutating into new strains.Īnd there is no guarantee that such new variants will be less deadly. When it comes to vaccines, Omicron has served as both a warning and a test. The different outcomes hinge on two key uncertainties: the possible emergence of new variants, and the ability of vaccines to protect against the disease in the long term. Under the worst-case scenario, new unpredictable variants build into repeated damaging virus waves, requiring the return of harsh restrictions. Under the "reasonable best-case" scenario, there will be smaller regional or seasonal outbreaks, as the higher Covid numbers lead to fewer flu cases. The British government's scientific advisory body SAGE has laid out four potential scenarios for the years to come. There are also other options than just pandemic or endemic. "A disease can be endemic and both widespread and deadly," he wrote in the journal Nature last week, pointing out that malaria killed more than 600,000 people in 2020, while 1.5 million died of tuberculosis. University of Oxford evolutionary virologist Aris Katzourakis said "the word 'endemic' has become one of the most misused of the pandemic." However some scientists worry governments could use the somewhat vague term to justify lifting life-saving measures. Spain has been among the nations calling for approaching Covid as having transitioned to an "endemic" phase, meaning it has milder seasonal outbreaks that humanity can live with, such as the flu. The WHO has said that the "acute phase" of the pandemic could end by the middle of this year - if around 70 percent of the world is vaccinated. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the change marked the beginning of learning "to live with Covid", as the global death count falls after the more transmissible though less severe Omicron variant swept the world.
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